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Independent predictive models for baseball, basketball, and football — built by an actuary. Every forecast is published before the games, tracked publicly, and never edited.

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Public record since 2024 · 10,000+ games logged · no retroactive edits

Final · National Champion
Oklahoma logoOklahomadef.North Carolina logoUNC
Model: UNC 58.1%OU won · 42%
Series recap · Jun 22Oklahoma wins the 2026 College World SeriesThe Sooners took the final two games to one. We favored North Carolina’s arms at 58.1% — and named, in advance, the exact 42% path Oklahoma walked to the title.Read the recap →

From the research desk

All research →
Rankings

Reading the BBMI Rankings: what the numbers mean, and who moved this week

Our new methodology ranks teams on banked wins, corrected only for the strength of the schedule they actually played — with roster talent kept as a lens beside it. How the number gets built, and the teams whose week moved it.

Jun 24 · 9 min read
Analysis

The Brewers pitching machine: how a small-market team manufactures aces

Top-five staff, bottom-third payroll · Jun 20Full-strength what-if

Running hot, running cold: who’s due to regress, who’s due to surge

Hot: ATL +.141 · Jun 20Series recap

Arms vs. hot streak, revisited: the hot streak took it

OU champions · Jun 22

The record, by league

Full methodology →
NCAA Basketball65.1%Premium ATS win rate395 graded games · edge ≥ 6 pts
n=395Premium 65.1
NCAA Baseball62.4%Premium O/U win rate173 graded games · edge ≥ 4 runs
All picks 54.6Premium 62.4
NCAA Football64.3%Premium ATS win rate347 games · walk-forward validated
n=347Premium 64.3
MLBIn calibrationNew F9 simulation engine deployed May 2026. The live track record is building now — we publish it as it accrues, not before.
Run lines + totalsTracking live
NFL32Teams ranked weeklyOpponent-adjusted power ratings. Rankings only — no picks.
Analytics contentUpdated weekly
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Today’s picks

Full slate · 1 game today →
Jun 25
MLB · 4:35 PM
Seattle Mariners logoSeattle @ PittsburghPittsburgh Pirates logo
First 5Vegas+0.5BBMI+1.2HOME +0.5+1.7
Free
✓Picks logged pre-game✓Never edited✓Public track record since 2024